Here’s a piece from US News about real estate and more specifically how the Brexit Vote could send US mortgage rates downward……enjoy:
Brexit Could Drive Mortgages to ‘Historic Lows’
But not all analysts are thrilled by that prospect.
By Andrew Soergel | Staff Writer June 24, 2016, at 4:45 p.m.
The United Kingdom’s less-than-amicable departure from the European Union sent ripples throughout the global economy Friday. Stocks plummeted as French, Dutch, Italian and Danish politicians called for their own national referendums, and British Prime Minister David Cameron announced plans to step down.
But the Brexit vote also appears to have had a somewhat surprising consequence – it has at least temporarily driven U.S. mortgage rates lower as international investors look to America as a bastion of investment safety.
“When there’s uncertainty outside of the U.S., investors move to safer investments. And in this particular case, we’re seeing an interest in U.S. mortgage-backed securities,” says Erin Lantz, vice president of mortgages at real estate hub Zillow.
Throughout Friday, investors from around the world poured cash into what are considered to be safe investments in order to shield themselves from international stock markets’ monumental losses. Some invested in gold – sending prices skyrocketing – while others turned to the newer and generally more risky Bitcoin.
But many others funneled capital into America’s mortgage-backed securities market. These types of investments are backed by a mortgage or a bundle of mortgages and are generally considered to be a safe bet for domestic and international investors alike.
“When we see that demand, that in turn drives down the mortgage rates that consumers in the U.S. have access to,” says Lantz, who said in a statement earlier in the day that Zillow expects “mortgage rates to reach historic lows in the wake of the Brexit vote.”
“What it means is that if you’re a homebuyer looking at a $200,000 home and putting 20 percent down, your average savings today is about $15 per month less than they would have been yesterday,” she said.
She says it’s “anyone’s guess” where mortgage rates go from here but that “the increased uncertainty we have today is going to keep rates lower for longer.”
And while more affordable financing options are just what first-time homebuyers are looking for – considering the American real estate market is balancing generally tight inventory and consistently climbing prices – Lantz ultimately expects the cheaper mortgage opportunities to make “a meaningful difference” without necessarily being a “game changer” that would drive a lot of new homeowners into the market.
Mortgage rates have been held down in part because the Federal Reserve has consistently delayed raising its benchmark interest rate – having done so only once since lowering it to near-zero levels in 2008.
But Joe Melendez, founder and CEO of downpayment-protection outfit ValueInsured, says the low mortgage rates have allowed realtors and home sellers to ratchet up listing prices in a dynamic he describes as “not sustainable.”
“We’re starting to see some of the effects of not raising interest rates in the growth in home values and the rapid expansion in home prices, which is going back to the pre-bubble days – I hate to use the word ‘bubble’ – but it’s the pre-bubble days of 2006 and 2007,” he says. “And at a certain point, you don’t have the wage growth and the wage sustainability to support those prices. So at a certain point you’ll be at a disequilibrium.”
That’s not to say the country is currently in a real estate bubble, but Melendez says America’s housing sector is starting to look like “a canary in a coal mine.” Brexit’s ultimate lowering of U.S. mortgage rates have only magnified that dynamic.
“Initially, this is going to push the rates down like we’re anticipating and like we’re seeing. And as mortgages continue to become cheaper, you’re just putting more fuel in the fire to push prices higher,” he says. “And at the same time we’re seeing the treasuries be the safe havens, we’re also potentially looking at creating headwinds, because those dollars coming in to buy [relatively safe assets] are also going to strengthen the dollar, which will create macroeconomic headwinds for us on the export market.”
Outside of mortgage rates and related securities, Lantz says there may be more international interest in U.S. real estate assets in the days and weeks ahead, “because it may be perceived as relatively safer than real estate investments in the U.K.”
All told, though, Lantz and Melendez both indicate it’s difficult to say exactly where home prices and mortgage rates will go in the near future. And with other EU countries now batting around the idea of a departure from the union, this could only be a first step.
“It’s terrifying when you think about just the size of the [gross domestic product],” Melendez says. “[The U.K.]’s not a big contributor to global GDP. But it has such a big impact. Imagine if Italy or France or Germany decide that this experiment is going to fail.”