I was recently asked by a vacant land buyer client, “how are you modeling/projecting the market in all of the possible COVID/recession scenarios”? I wish I could say I had a concrete answer for her, but I didn’t. My response was it’s too early to know, as right now we’re in our typical spring offseason when the market quiets down whether we have Covid or no Covid.
Certainly, by mid summer we’ll have a better grasp, but very likely we’re going to experience a Telluride summer like never before. Festivals are being canceled, new lodging/short term rental rules are likely going into effect and I’ve heard that restaurants and bars will likely have to operate at half capacity, possibly only outdoor restaurant dining, etc… My wife talked with a veteran resort marketing specialists and he commented that he foresees RVing becoming bigger than ever as people can travel but still isolate in their rig. That makes sense on many levels, but I can tell you Telluride isn’t designed for the RV world, which is a blessing for sure.
Depending on how quickly we get the virus under control, my hunch is we’ll see a slow down in contract and sales activity, but values for the most part are likely to hold. That being said, there will certainly be situations where a seller will likely capitulate more than they would have 2+- months ago if they’re dealing with a ready and able buyer. No doubt, the market will likely segued more-so to a buyer’s market. Also, we’re are seeing a major uptick in online real estate searching which makes sense with people stuck at home and online all the time. Continuing, we’re also hearing from buyers who may purchase sooner than later in the spirit of getting on with life and having Telluride as a place to getaway from the real world.
Talking two days ago with a long time AZ client of mine who is in the drywall distribution business, plus he does a good amount of real estate development, said client conveyed that he and his businesses have never been busier. Last week his drywall business posted record numbers as did his sales of single family homes. He commented that he sold a couple homes simply over the internet, allowed the buyers to move-in immediately with a released earnest money wire and they closed the deals within 2-3 days. Crazy, but very encouraging.
Let’s keep the faith and stay positive and hope AZ is the blueprint to our future and Telluride (and the world) getting back on track.